Saturday, January 30, 2010

Toyota Shows How Giants Stumble

At General Motors, they used to call their surging competitor "Mr. T," as if intimidated by a muscular rival who seemed able to seize market share at will. But Toyota suddenly looks pretty meek, thanks to a mystifying safety problem that has led to a huge recall, an unprecedented production shutdown, and an ugly dent in a once sterling reputation.

This corporate nightmare has mushroomed since last fall, when Toyota recalled about 4 million vehicles because of floor mats with a propensity to slip down into the driver's side foot well, potentially interfering with the pedals and causing sudden acceleration. Now Toyota has recalled an additional 2.3 million vehicles for a problem that sounds similar, but the company says it's different: faulty gas pedals that can stick if they become worn, causing--once again--sudden acceleration.

[See 15 cars fueling the auto recovery.]

Recalls aren't unusual. Here's what normally happens: The owner gets notified of the recall and brings the car to a dealer, where the problem is fixed in a day or two with no charge to the customer. But this recall is more confusing and far more draconian than usual. For one thing, Toyota announced the recall before there was a fix in place, so dealers didn't even know what to do if you brought them the car. Toyota implies that most of the recalled vehicles can still be driven safely, but it also offers these instructions for people who feel their car might have a sticky gas pedal: "The vehicle should be driven to the nearest safe location, the engine shut off, and a Toyota dealer contacted for assistance." Beyond that, Toyota has also issued some Dukes of Hazzard style maneuvers drivers should use if they're cruising along and the pedal does, in fact, stick, such as shifting into neutral or turning off the ignition (but don't take the key out!). Do they teach that in driver's ed?

If you're a concerned parent with a suspect Toyota, you could easily imagine that the gas pedal seems a little stickier than usual. And do what? Risk your kids' lives by driving them around in a death trap? Pull off on the side of the highway and call a taxi? Garage the car and rent something safe--at $300 per week--until Toyota figures out what's going on? Stressing out your customers like that isn't exactly the way to win repeat business.

The sales and production stoppage suggests an even bigger problem, with lots of legal liability. Toyota has stopped selling or building eight models, including the Camry, Corolla, and RAV 4, which represent more than 50 percent of its sales. That will cost Toyota millions, maybe billions, of dollars. It already ranks near the top in the annals of corporate meltdowns, and it's not necessarily over. GM, meanwhile, is poaching Toyota customers with special financing and other incentives, along with cars that go the speed you want them to.

[See 10 products that boomed during the recession.]

How did this happen? Toyota itself may not even know yet, and it could take months or years for the full story to develop. But Toyota's dramatic comedown isn't as sudden as it might seem. Some industry-watchers feel the saga has been building for years and may even have been inevitable.

In his 2009 book, How the Mighty Fall, business guru Jim Collins outlined five stages of decline that many big companies go through. Mostly he wrote about companies that lose their edge gradually, even imperceptibly, until thousands of tiny termite holes bring down the house. Toyota might qualify as an accelerated version of such a collapse.

Toyota has grown steadily into the world's biggest automaker, earning customer loyalty for the reliability and longevity of its vehicles. But problems have been slowly building. The T100 pickup sold in the 1990s failed to hit Toyota's usual mark for quality, with some critics complaining that it was an underpowered make-do truck that paled next to American counterparts. Beginning around 1999, thousands of Toyota owners complained about mysterious "sludge" buildup that wrecked their engines, prompting criticism that Toyota was growing too fast and skimping on quality; Toyota resisted the claims but settled a class action lawsuit brought by owners in 2007. Toyota owners have also complained about faulty head lamps on the Prius hybrid, and more than 100,000 Tundra pickups were recalled in 2009 for problems with rusting frames. On the business side, Toyota badly miscalculated when it built a new pickup plant in Texas, with sales far below projections.

[See 21 things we're learning to live without.]

Consumers have noticed. Surveys by CNW Marketing Research in Brandon, Ore., show that from 1997 to 2007, Toyota consistently ranked at the top for nonluxury car makers, neck and neck with Honda. For 10 straight years, consumers rated Toyota 9.1 or higher, on average, out of 10. In 2008, that rating slipped below 9 for the first time, and in the latest survey--which took place before the gas-pedal recall--respondents gave Toyota an 8.5 rating. That's lower than the ratings for Honda, Buick, Mazda, Volkswagen, Ford, and even Saturn.

Toyota's recent history lines up fairly well with Collins's taxonomy of decline. His first stage is "hubris born of success," which certainly could apply to Toyota. For years, Toyota was a model of efficient manufacturing, mimicked even by firms in different industries. That may have convinced the firm's leaders they could grow rapidly and maintain quality at any size. Next in the evolution of decline comes "undisciplined pursuit of more." Toyota definitely had grand ambitions--to become the world's biggest automaker--but it's not clear yet if the firm was undisciplined or simply took risks that went against it. Collins's third stage is "denial of risk and peril," which many critics certainly saw in Toyota's rigid refutation of consumer complaints. Stage four is "grasping for salvation," which is what Toyota seems to be doing now.

[See 4 things that could derail a recovery.]

It's a safe bet, however, that Toyota will escape Collins's fifth stage: "capitulation to irrelevance or death." Despite its woes, Toyota remains a strong brand and a powerful company, and falling on its sword today may be the best path toward a corporate rebound. Surveys by BrandIndex, a market research firm, show that Toyota's "buzz" score--reflecting consumers' immediate perception of the brand--have dipped to historic lows. But positive impressions of Toyota still outweigh negative ones, which means customers are likely to return if the company solves its problems once and for all--and makes amends. "Consumers are pretty forgiving of blue-chip brands," says Ted Marzilli of BrandIndex. "Prospects are still quite good for Toyota, provided the issue is resolved quickly, there is clear communication to consumers, and there are no more issues in the near future." And humility replaces hubris.

Texas Leads U.S. in High-Growth Cities

A new survey finds the Lone Star State is leading in terms of growth rate and household income. Atascocita, Tex., is No. 1 in the state
Tired of reading about how rotten the real estate market is? Here's some good news that shows that even during the worst of the recession plenty of American cities, towns, and suburbs continue to grow.

One such place is Atascocita, Tex. A mostly residential community 20 miles from Houston, it gained more than 1,800 households in 2009, an 8% year-over-year increase, according to new data from Little Rock-based data firm Gadberry Group. Over the decade, amenities that have helped attract residents to this wooded locale include Lake Houston, just east of the city; the school district; and proximity to the city of Houston. With new roads in the area under construction, "we're starting to see major industry start to take a look at the area," says Mike Byers, president of the Lake Houston Area Chamber of Commerce.


Migration levels nationwide stayed low last year as homeowners saddled with pricey mortgages stayed put--but there are some positive trends. Research by the Gadberry Group shows that some areas, resisting the effects of the recession, continue to attract both domestic and foreign migrants and, as an effect, bring in new businesses to provide services. While other cities across the U.S. have contracted, these have continued to grow.

Some states are better off than others, though. As thousands of people left places such as New Orleans and Flint, Mich. (the country's two fastest-shrinking cities), in the last decade, communities with the best mix of economic activity, proximity to job centers, and a good environment for families continued to grow. While not entirely spared by the economic downturn (some homes in these areas are now in foreclosure), people continued to move in during 2009.

Texas Grew the Most
Texas came out on top of Gadberry's survey, with four high-growth cities: Atascocita, Katy, Mansfield, and Wylie. The report only included areas larger than 10,000 occupied households that met requirements for growth rate, household income, length of residence, and other factors.

Larry Martin, principal of the Gadberry Group, says many of the places with the biggest housing growth at the beginning of the last decade, such as Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, also saw the biggest drop-off since the economy sank. Texas, however, enjoyed relatively strong housing and job markets over the last 10 years, thanks in large part to the presence of major employers in the robust energy business. As of December, the state unemployment rate was 8.3% (lower than the national rate of 10%), according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It also had the largest state population growth between July 2008 and July 2009, according to a December release by the Census Bureau. "New homes are still being built and people are still moving into these homes" in Texas, says Martin.

Part of the state's strength, says Mark Mather, a demographer at the Population Reference Bureau in Washington, D.C., is its diversified economy. Main industries include petroleum refining, chemical production, aerospace, and information technology.

Meanwhile, areas that depended on the housing boom are now dealing with high foreclosure rates. Places such as Summerlin South, Nev., which appear in Bloomberg BusinessWeek's slide show of fast-growing cities, gained population but, like the rest of the state, may be dealing with high mortgage default rates.

"If you live by migration, you also die by migration," says Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute. "It doesn't guarantee continued growth."

New Business Opportunities
Migration is typically highest among people in their 20s seeking jobs near large urban cores, but employment opportunities are not the only draw. "Amenities are also important in migrational decisions," says Johnson. Many families consider factors such as schools and recreational amenities like scenic areas and parks.

This is a consideration now in Spring Hill, Tenn., which gained 7,645 households since 2000 as many young families moved to the town for affordable housing and work at the General Motors plant, which is now idle. Dustin Dunbar, chairman of the Spring Hill Economic Development Commission, says this has created demand and opportunity for businesses that provide youth activities and entertainment. "We hope to recruit some businesses to cater to our largest demographics," he says.

While migration in 2010 may remain sluggish, "we'll see a continuation of urban sprawl once the economy bounces back," says Mather.

Fastest Growing Cities by State

Arizona: Buckeye
Number of households: 18,112
Pct. Chg: +10% since 2008 (+261% since 2000)
Average household income: $52,927 (–6% since 2000)

Why: Buckeye is one of the fastest-growing suburbs in Arizona and has seen a large influx of Asian residents, especially Vietnamese, according to Gadberry. While many new housing units are planned, the price of real estate in Buckeye has dropped nearly 12% since 2008, according to Trulia, and thousands of properties are in the foreclosure process.

California: Lincoln
Number of households: 21,997
Pct. Chg: +10% since 2008 (+250% since 2000)
Average household income: $90,608 (+16% since 2000)
Why: Lincoln, a suburban development 30 miles from Sacramento, is the fastest-growing suburb of California and the third fastest-growing town in the U.S. New office buildings, shopping centers, housing developments, and custom home properties have gone up in recent years as a part of the local development plan, according to ZipRealty.

Georgia: Braselton
Number of households: 13,929
Pct. Chg: +8% since 2008 (+118% since 2000)
Average household income: $113,664 (+67% since 2000)
Why: Gadberry Group noted Braselton, a suburb of Atlanta, as a remarkable high-growth area due to increases not only in population, but also average income and average household net worth ($532,628). Companies operating here such as Sears Logistics, Tractor Supply, Mitsubishi, and Progressive Lighting have helped to generate jobs.

Indiana: Avon
Number of households: 11,521
Pct. Chg: +8% since 2008 (+73% since 2000)
Average household income: $97,355 (+35% since 2000)
Why: Avon has experienced rapid growth since the 1990s due to its convenient location 10 miles from Indianapolis, where health care, social services, and education are the leading industries, according to Simply Hired.

Iowa: Urbandale
Number of households: 16,402
Pct. Chg: +8% since 2008 (+44% since 2000)
Average household income: $93,655 (+12% since 2000)
Why: Urbandale, within an hour's drive from Kansas City and Minneapolis, has a lower unemployment rate than the national average. The insurance and finance industries are major employers.

North Carolina: Wake Forest
Number of households: 17,803
Pct. Chg: +8% since 2008 (+118% since 2000)
Average household income: $82,771 (+18% since 2000)
Why: Not far from the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Triangle, Wake Forest has attracted residents with excellent quality of life, public schools, and health-care resources. Gadberry also notes the high percentage of children and ethnic diversity here.

South Carolina: Fort Mill
Number of households: 10,474
Pct. Chg: +8% since 2008 (+91% since 2000)
Average household income: $72,090(+23% since 2000)
Why: Companies such as Continental Tire and music distributor Muzak are located in Fort Mill, near Rock Hill, S.C., and Charlotte, N.C. While many financial companies moved into the area during the housing boom, they have mostly pulled out, reported The Wall Street Journal.

Tennessee: Spring Hill
Number of households: 11,814
Pct. Chg: +10% since 2008 (+183% since 2000)
Average household income: $92,347 (+44% since 2000)
Why: Spring Hill saw the fourth-largest increase in number of households on Gadberry's list, driven largely by the jobs created by GM's plant, which manufactured Saturn vehicles until 2008, when it started making the GM Traverse.

Texas: Atascocita
Number of households: 23,917
Pct. Chg: +8% since 2008 (+108% since 2000)
Average household income: $99,272 (+26% since 2000)
Why: Atascocita, 18 miles from Houston, boasts golf courses and country clubs. Residents can also boat and fish in nearby Lake Houston, a manmade lake. According to Gadberry, the number of Hispanic households increased by 278% since 2000, making it the largest-growing segment of the population.

Utah: South Jordan
Number of households: 13,622
Pct. Chg: +9% since 2008 (+82% since 2000)
Average household income: $108,300 (+37% since 2000)
Why: Development in this city, 10 miles from Salt Lake City, was fueled by the availability of land and large lots, planned communities, and a charming rural atmosphere. The new Daybreak Community development is expected to attract many more residents.

Honda sets own recall as Toyota details action

TOKYO/PARIS (Reuters) – Toyota said its global safety withdrawal would take up to 1.8 million vehicles off Europe's roads and rival Honda announced its own recall, placing the vaunted pedigree of Japan's carmakers under fresh scrutiny.

The move by Honda, tipped to benefit from Toyota's woes, came as suppliers, consumers and analysts weighed the financial impact on Toyota of its recall and its suspension of U.S. sales.

Investors also assessed the fall-out for an industry just emerging from global crisis as well as the damage to Japanese automakers' prized reputation for safety and reliability.

"It's not that their vehicles are worse than the others, (the recalls are) just showing maybe that their vehicles are like the others," said IHS Global Insight analyst Carlos Da Silva.

"The race to cost cuts and the competition between all brands is so fierce that even the mighty Japanese are doing things that are not as reliable as they were."

In a rare piece of positive news for Toyota, a source told Reuters that its U.S. sales could resume by the third week in February if a remedy to potentially sticking accelerator pedals was rolled out smoothly.

BENEFITS

Barclays Capital analysts still thought Honda would benefit from Toyota's massive recall, while Ford, GM, Hyundai and Nissan Motor Co also stood to gain market share in the short-term.

Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker, this week suspended North American sales and production of eight models and widened its recall to China and Europe, bringing the total to around 8 million units, more than the number of cars and trucks it sold worldwide in 2009.

Toyota said Friday it would recall eight models in Europe, totaling as many as 1.8 million units in Europe.

A Toyota spokeswoman said the company was still checking on whether any vehicles in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa had an accelerator problem.

Honda said it would recall 646,000 of its Fit/Jazz and City models, including 140,000 in the United States, because of a faulty window switch, after a child died when fire broke out in a car last year.

In an unusual move, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman said the panel would investigate how effectively Toyota responded to concerns about sticking pedals and slipping floormats.

KNOCK-ON EFFECTS

In Tokyo, some worried about the effects on Japan's image and economy.

"If Toyota has hard times, there's a high probability that also Japan will," said Takeo Namekata, a 62-year-old office worker. "Particularly, trade will suffer."

Suppliers were expected to see some fallout.

"If Toyota gets the flu, its suppliers will also be sneezing," said Kevin Chen, president of Gasgoo.com, a major Chinese auto parts trading platform.

International component makers were most at risk, said Tatsuya Mizuno, president of Mizuno Credit Advisory, because it might encourage Toyota to switch to Japanese suppliers, he told Reuters Insider television.

Analysts have estimated the sales halt could cost Toyota at least 50 billion yen ($556 million) in operating profit a month, almost as much as it made in the September quarter.

SAFETY REPUTATION

IHS Global Insight's Da Silva said Japanese carmakers would be able to salvage their reputations as long as they moved quickly to show the recalls were isolated incidents.

Recalls can show companies care about the cars they build, and don't simply wash their hands of them once they are driven away from the showroom, he added.

Toyota shares have dropped 17.6 percent since January 21, when it said it would broaden its recalls by a further 2.3 million vehicles. Shares ended down 2 percent in Tokyo Friday.

Industry analysts and executives estimate it will cost some $250 million in warranty costs alone for Toyota to address the smaller of the two recalls underway in the United States.

The automaker also faces the fallout from the larger recall that began last year and was broadened this week for vehicles at risk of having floormats that can jam under accelerator pedals.

(Additional reporting by Bernie Woodall, Soyoung Kim, Kevin Krolicki in Detroit; Chang-Rang Kim and Taiga Uranaka in Tokyo; Janaki Krishan in Mumbai; Fang Yan in Shanghai; Tiisetso Motsoeneng in Johannesburg; Rhys Jones in London and Helen Massy-Beresford in Paris; Editing by David Cowell)

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

9 Things You Should Ask Your Gynecologist

Do you ever feel shy about talking to your doctor about certain things? Whether it’s an embarrassing concern, question or confession, it’s important to say what’s on your mind and what’s been going on with your body when you’re in the exam room. Here are nine questions you should never feel nervous about asking your gynecologist:

1. “Why does sex hurt?”
9 Things You Should Ask Your Gynecologist

While not every woman will experience pain during intercourse, it affects as many as 15 percent of women at various points in their lives, says Debby Herbenick, PhD, author of Because It Feels Good: A Woman's Guide to Sexual Pleasure and Satisfaction. “All too often, women think that pain is ‘normal,’ or something they should grin and bear,” she says. “But they don't have to. Genital pain can often be treated.” If you’re experiencing pain during intercourse, speak up! Your doctor can help you find a treatment plan that’s right for you, possibly refer you to a specialist and connect you to helpful resources like the National Vulvodynia Association, a group that specializes in vaginal pain.
2. “Why does it itch…down there?”
Vaginal itching can be embarrassing and troubling. “Women often think they have a yeast infection when they really don't and then they end up spending money on yeast medications that may make their problem worse,” explains Dr. Herbenick. “In fact, itching can also be a sign of a sexually transmissible infection, a vulvar skin disorder, a bacterial infection, a sensitivity to laundry soap or, in rare cases, an early sign of vulvar cancer.” Bottom line: If you’re experiencing vaginal itching, don’t hide it from your doctor. “Itching should always be brought to a healthcare provider's attention.”

3. “I’m concerned about my vaginal odor—is it a sign of an infection or STD?”
Concerns about vaginal odor are very common, says Dr. Herbenick, so don’t feel like you’re the first woman in the history of the world to worry about it. “Often, the scent is totally normal,” she says, “and your gynecologist can reassure you of this so you can feel comfortable and confident with your body.” But if you’re concerned that something is wrong, especially if a perceived odor coincides with other symptoms, like excessive discharge or burning and itching, your gynecologist needs to know. “It may reflect a bacterial imbalance or an infection that can be treated.”

4. “Why do I sometimes leak urine?”
Urinary incontinence affects many women—of all ages—says Keehn Hosier, MD, an ob-gyn who practices at Brookwood Medical Center in Birmingham, Alabama, but it’s most common for pre- and post-menopausal women, especially those who have had children. The condition can be embarrassing and socially isolating, and, he says, many are afraid to talk about it. “Women shouldn’t have to suffer in silence about something like this,” says Dr. Hosier. “It’s something that’s often treatable. There are many ways to treat the symptoms, ranging from weight-loss, bladder training, medication, implant devices or even surgery.”

5. “I’m concerned that my boyfriend/husband/partner is cheating. Should I be tested for a sexually transmitted disease?” Or “I had an affair. Should I get an STD test?”
Whether you’re concerned about the consequences of his unfaithfulness or yours, it can feel embarrassing to bring it up with your gynecologist. But she’s the first person you should talk to, say experts. Ask your doctor about getting a comprehensive sexually transmitted disease test, says Dr. Hosier. Not only will it ease your mind, but it could save your life. “If you have even the slightest concern, it’s always better to have it checked out,” he says. “We’re diagnosing many more cases of STDs in older women because of the increased use of erectile dysfunction medications.”

6. “Why am I having hot flashes—could it be menopause, or something else?”
According to Robert Gallo, MD, a board-certified ob-gyn and past president of the New Jersey Obstetrical and Gynecological Society, many women keep quiet about their hot flashes because they assume it’s a normal and natural symptom of aging and menopause. But here’s some new thinking: Dr. Gallo encourages all women to tell their doctors about them. True, they may be a normal symptom of menopause, but they may also be a symptom of another health condition. “I can't tell you the number of times that a patient's hot flashes were a sign of a thyroid imbalance. The symptoms just may be related to premenopausal, menopausal or postmenopausal issues, but don't assume that they are.” Thyroid conditions are often diagnosed with a simple blood test and easily treated with medication.

7. “The skin near my vagina appears to have changed color and texture—is this a problem?”
Being aware of the changes in your genital area is important, as is sharing them with your doctor, particularly if you notice changes in skin color or texture. “It could be an early warning sign of a benign vulvar skin disorder called lichen sclerosus,” explains Dr. Herbenick. “If left untreated, it can cause thinning of the vulvar skin, which can lead to painful sex or tearing of the genital skin during sex. It can also cause severe itching or pain if left untreated. Fortunately, successful treatments are available, so early detection is key.”

8. “Why do I have such painful periods?
”If you have severe pain and discomfort with your period each month, it could be a sign of many things, including a serious yet treatable health condition called endometriosis, which can cause excruciating pain and even infertility. According to data, endometriosis may affect millions of women in the United States, yet many cases go undiagnosed, says Tamer Seckin, MD, a laparoscopic surgeon and endometriosis specialist, and cofounder of the Endometriosis Foundation of America. The reason? Women fail to share their symptoms with their doctors. Women shouldn’t assume that all menstrual pain is “normal,” says Dr. Seckin, who urges women to discuss any and all symptoms to their doctor. “Endometriosis is treatable, even curable, if addressed early enough.”

9. “With breast cancer in mind, how should I check my breasts?”
If you’re confused about what you should be doing to detect and prevent breast cancer, join the club! There have been so many confusing messages for women in the last year, even the last month, says Lissa Rankin, MD, ob-gyn, author of the forthcoming book What's Up Down There? Questions You'd Only Ask Your Gynecologist If She Was Your Best Friend, and founder of OwningPink.com. It’s why you should be asking your doctor this question and demanding a clear answer.

“The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force just changed the recommendations,” Dr. Rankin explains. “They are now suggesting that doctors refrain from teaching self-breast exams and that women skip self-breast exams.” Dr. Rankin says she has some concerns about this. “While the data to support breast self-exam as an effective screening tool demonstrates little benefit, we all know someone who has found her own breast cancer by examining her breast in the shower. If you’re that one woman, aren’t you glad your learned how to check your breasts? The way I see it, there’s no harm. Some argue that breast self-exams increase anxiety and lead to unnecessary doctor’s visits when patients find a ‘lump’ that doesn’t really exist. But I’d much rather have a woman come in to double-check a nonexistent lump than miss a breast cancer.”